Saturday, January 31, 2009

World Series Preview: Montgomery vs. Hartford


Preview: Welcome to the top of the mountain, boys. These two teams must have enjoyed the view from the top an awful lot a year ago, because they both overcame another long baseball season to meet here again. It's a classic matchup of American League vs. National League. The offense-loving junior circuit sends the best offense in all of the majors, while the senior circuit offers up the best pitching staff in all of the majors. Though it is said defense wins championships, a year ago it was Hartford hoisting the hardware overhead, as they defeated Montgomery 4-2. Will something change this year and allow the Biscuits their fair share of baseball's greatest prize?

Best Storyline: It's all about the repeat. Can Hartford pull it off? After some early season setbacks, they are knocking on the door of history. Maybe bringing the whole house down is more apt, considering their shocking comeback from 3-0 down in the ALCS to the Tucson Pilots. A lot of things have to go a team's way in order to repeat as world champions, and it just feels like all the breaks have been Hartford's up to this point. If they pull the repeat off, they will set an early gold standard for the Double Mendoza League.

Pay Attention To: Game 1. I apologize if that's an obvious statement, as everyone acknowledges Game 1's importance in a series. But this particular Game 1 will be even more intriguing due to the possible fatigue factor for Hartford, coming off that draining 7-game series with Tucson. Montgomery only had to go 5 against the Fargo Fightin' Sioux, so they have enjoyed a few off days and should have their starting rotation primed and ready. I think the best shot Montgomery has in this series is to jump out to a 2-0 lead before heading home, otherwise they could be toast.

ALCS Aftermath: It's an understatement to say it stings to lose a series when you're up 3-0, but for the Tucson Pilots, the cut might be a little deeper than usual. Owner threester announced prior to this season that this would be his last go at GM of the Pilots. So when new ownership comes in, it may not be a given that this well-constructed team will be able to return to the heights they achieved this season. So even though they had a great run and probably feel like they should still be playing, a lot of turbulent times loom in the distance for the boys from the desert.

Prediction: I buy into the mantra that pitching wins in October, but it's not as though Hartford's pitching is that bad. In fact, it's pretty solid. And while Montgomery's staff might be the best around, I think their offense is that bad. So unless they can win a lot of 3-2 decisions, they're going to struggle to win more than 2 games as they did a year ago. For me, Hartford's offense is just too good to be kept down for long, especially over a full 7-game set, as they demonstrated in the ALCS. With my perfect postseason prediction record on the line, I'm putting my faith in the Hartford Hartattacks to repeat as champs.

Hartford Hartattacks in 6

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Year End Awards

While the season is over for all but 4 teams, there are some competitions left unresolved. Several impressive players are hoping to pick up a piece of hardware thanks to the prestigious season-end awards. It's not always obvious who will walk away with these trophies, as the decision rests on the votes of the GMs and not on pure numbers (which are subjective anyway). But, your fearless blog is ready to call each race.

AL Rookie of the Year: This one is really a 2-horse race between the Chicago Gangsta' Chimps' 2B James Martin and the Memphis Blues' CF Pablo Suarez. The case for Martin seems pretty strong until fielding percentage is brought into the equation. While both play premiere defensive spots on the field, Martin's .965 fielding percentage is an unsightly blemish on an otherwise fantastic campaign. But, even so, there's no denying the impact and consistency Martin brought to the Chimps' lineup, and his gaudy numbers, including a 1.032 OPS, should bring in the votes.


NL Rookie of the Year: Unlike the American League, the National League Rookie of the Year race features some pitchers in the conversation. Montgomery Biscuits SP Brian Nickle won 17 games and kept his ERA equally impressive at 3.28. With the exception of wins and ERA, though, Fargo Fightin' Sioux SP Clem Doyle had even better numbers across the board. But it is impossible to pass over Arizona Flip-Floppers' 1B Joe Thompson's thunderous bat. He turned around opposing pitchers 56 times and drove in 143 runs. This 22-year-old will be a menace at the plate for years to come, and will likely earn best rookie distinction in the National League this year.

AL Cy Young: I've never been a fan of giving the Cy Young to a closer, unless they have 50+ saves and never blew a save opportunity. So while CP Albert Benitez, of the Hartford Hartattacks, might draw some votes, I don't think he'll be able to best the impressive class of starters in the running for the AL Cy Young. Huntington Guyandottes SP Coco Casey chewed up more innings per start than any of his fellow nominees, and to make his case stronger he went 23-9 with a 2.96 in an offense-happy American League. At $343K, he's also great bang for the buck, though that obviously doesn't factor into the voting. He is the clear frontrunner and should breeze by his competition to win this award.

NL Cy Young: With only one 20-win pitcher in the field, the competition for the NL Cy Young is a little tighter. But if you're looking for an upset pick, you still won't find it here. Montreal Expos SP Christian Casey won 80% of his decisions, nearly kept his WHIP below 1 at 1.01, and even has the best strikeout ratio of the nominees. There's no doubt in my mind that a Casey is going to win the Cy Young in both leagues this year, making Papa Casey one proud father.




AL Most Valuable Player: With 3 Tucson Pilots in the running, one of them has to win it, right? This is a talented field, but again the clea choice is obvious. It's not Huntington Guyandottes' 1B Ivan DeSoto, who led all of the majors in home runs with 67. It's not Nashville Sounds' 2B Danny Brunette, a "total package" player who hit .328 with 46 home runs and 46 stolen bases. So which Pilot is it? It's RF Felipe Espinoza. He led the majors in batting average by a full 17 points at .360. He was also the majors' leader in OPS at 1.163. He hit 51 home runs and drove in 140 Pilots. He stole 24 bases. He performed CPR on a baby dying of heat exhaustion in the Tucson area. The scary thing for AL pitchers? Only one of those things is false...

NL Most Valuable Player: I really hate giving one player two awards, but how do you not in this case? Previously mentioned 1B Joe Thompson of the Arizona Flip-Floppers is the obvious choice for Most Valuable Player, much as he is for Rookie of the Year. No disrespect to Los Angeles Dodgers' LF Mandy Chace, who resurrected his career this season after being ripped up by Los Angeles media a year ago for a disappointing season, but his numbers weren't good enough. And even though Joe Thompson doesn't play a premiere defensive position, of the nominees, only Louisville Sluggers' CF Daryl Van Hekken does. And with a bat in his hand, he just cannot match worldbeater Thompson. Sure he didn't play on a playoff team, but he had Arizona in contention in a difficult NL West after they were an also-ran a year ago. Joe Thompson, you are our big winner, taking home both National League Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

NLCS Preview: Montgomery vs. Fargo


National League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 4th
1st - Pitching - 7th
1st - Defense - 2nd

Season Series: Montgomery Biscuits, 8-2

Preview: While the casual fan might be pulling for the "upset" pick here, in order to avoid a repeat World Series, true baseball fans are likely pulling for Montgomery to take care of business in this NLCS.  If Hartford and Montgomery reunite, the two best teams will once again be meeting in the Fall Classic.  Montgomery won the first 8 (!) meetings against Fargo this season before finally dropping 2.

But, don't tell anyone from small market Fargo, North Dakota that.  The city is in a fever pitch after the Fightin' Sioux earned some redemption this season by surging past the inexperienced Kingfishers in the NLDS, a step they were unable to take a year ago.  So, this season, will the National League's final chapter have a different ending?  Or will Goliath squash yet another David en route to a rendezvous with Hartford?

What We Know: Fargo won't be relying on the long ball to move on.  In their NLDS against Oklahoma City, they hit only 2 home runs in 4 games.  Their best run producer was 2B Allen Morton with 7 RBI.  We also know how Montgomery's 4th starter will fare if he has to pitch.  SP Rey Fleming lost Game 4 against the Dodgers and only lasted 4.2 innings.  But their other 3 starters were good as gold, and no one ever lost an NLCS with 3 tough starters.

What We Don't Know: We don't know who Montgomery can rely on in the clutch.  1B Chad Bieser has been the best performer in the playoffs, but none of the regular starters hit consistently.  If ever they find themselves down 3-2 in the 9th, who is going to step up and start a rally?  We also don't know if Montgomery getting pushed to 5 games against Los Angeles will effect the first few games.  If fatigue is an issue, and Fargo is gifted an early game, the Fightin' Sioux Game 2 and 3 starters, SP Billy Tracy and SP Jack Torres, might have what it takes to extend that lead.

Prediction: Los Angeles was a tough team, but Montgomery's shaky performance in the NLDS makes them more of a question mark in this series than they should be.  Still, while Fargo might have the pitching to push this series into its later games, I don't think they have the offense to get the job done.  This will be your typical NL slugfest, with low scores and bullpens being put under the microscope.  Expect a number of 1-run games, but also expect the "Back-to-Back NLCS Champs" t-shirts to be printed for Montgomery.

Montgomery Biscuits in 5

Sunday, January 25, 2009

ALCS Preview: Hartford vs. Tucson



American League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 2nd
2nd - Pitching - 4th
15th - Defense - 4th

Season Series: Tied, 5-5

Preview: On the precipice of returning to the promised land one year after they won it all, the Hartford Hartattacks will face a very different opponent this time around in the ALCS. This time, to earn top honors on the junior circuit, the Hartattacks will have to eliminate a team after their own heart. For the second straight year, Hartford and Tucson finished 1 and 2 in American League offense. Both teams play in hitters' parks and are like two powderkegs waiting to go off.

At the risk of inserting my opinion into the column, I love this time of year when the series become best-of-7. There's more strategy involved, especially when it comes to starting rotations and bullpen workload. As the teams dig deeper into their rotation, we could easily see the likes of Hartford SP Wayne Egan (17-6, 4.31) or Tucson SP Rob Spencer (18-6, 4.33). Especially since these pitchers tend to have to throw late in the series, it's not inconceivable that one of them could play a big role in determining the outcome.

What We Know: Tucson DH Felipe Espinoza would do it all for the Pilots if he had to. In the postseason he is hitting for a .433 avg with 6 HRs and 17 RBIs. The supporting cast is doing a good job as well, but Tucson's offensive output dipped a bit in the ALDS as compared to the ALPS. Considering they overcame a double dose of Memphis SP Rico Parra, though, that may not be their primary concern. For Hartford, their bullpen was outstanding against Nashville, but it didn't matter after Game 1. The offense exploded to score 6, 21, and 8 runs in their 3 wins, meaning a tight bullpen wasn't as important. SP/RP Hideo Abe had a save, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. If he steps out of the 'pen in this series, the Pilots hitters might smell blood.

What We Don't Know: We don't know who Tucson's ace is. Sure, SP Oswaldo Mendez will start Game 1, but he has given up 11 runs in 4 starts. If expected to nail down a Game 5-7 win, we don't know if he can do it. We also don't know where Hartford's run production will come from--but that's a good thing. After playing just 4 games this postseason, 8 different hitters have driven in at least 3 runs. 3B Dicky Williams and SS Carmen Jackson lead the way with 6 apiece.

Prediction: Offense reigns in the American League, and exhibits A and B stand before you as ALCS opponents. Tucson may have been bounced from the playoffs early a year ago, but those are distant memories now. With 4 more victories, they can step onto baseball's grandest stage. But, standing in their way is the only team who has never lost in the postseason. Believe it or not, this series comes down to pitching over offense, as they so often do. SP Gerald Suzuki and SP Terrence Walters, who could combine for as many as 4 starts in this series, will be key in this series. If they, and Hartford's bullpen, pitch up to their billing, then this season's AL Champion will feel pretty familiar.

Hartford Hartattacks in 6

ALDS Preview: Memphis vs. Tucson


American League Rankings:
6th - Offense - 2nd
1st - Pitching - 4th
12th - Defense - 4th

Season Series: Tucson Pilots, 7-3

Preview:
Both of these teams suffered early exits a year ago, but this year one of them will claim passage to the ALCS. The Tucson Pilots got pushed to the brink by a formidable Huntington Guyandottes team in the ALPS, so how much do they really have left in the tank? I suspect plenty. In fact, now that an interesting Huntington squad is out of the picture, Tucson may be the likeliest team remaining who could potentially beat Hartford.

So how can Memphis tame this beast in a series they are "supposed" to win? The burden lies squarely on the shoulders of their pitching staff, and one man in particular will need to be the Blues' trump card. SP Rico Parra is the best arm available to either team, and is going to have to play the role of difference maker to push Memphis into the ALCS.

Offensive Analysis: The Pilots scored 41 runs in 5 games against the Guyandottes, which made them the top offense during the PS'. We expected them to light up the scoreboard, and that shouldn't change in this round. So, the Blues, who had 5 players drive in more than 90 runs in the regular season, will need contributions up and down their lineup. Anchoring it for them will be 2B Pablo Suarez (.286, 31, 120) and CF Rafael Montanez (.302, 36, 98). They also have a very nice spark plug in LF Bryan Guerrero (.339, 5, 56) whose .424 OBP and 66 stolen bases make him a nice top of the order weapon.

Pitching Analysis: As mentioned earlier, the Blues need SP Rico Parra (21-6, 2.63) to pitch as advertised in this series in order to move on. If they can't rely on him in his starts, it becomes really hard to plan out a way for Memphis to get the necessary 3 wins. If Tucson's offense keeps clicking and they get deep into the Memphis bullpen, only RP Julio Mercado (10-1, 2.62) appears to be much of a threat to keep the big hitters down.

Prediction: Memphis was very impressive this year in gunning down a Nashville team for the AL South, after the Sounds led for the majority of the season. And though they managed to wrestle away the 2-seed from both Nashville and these Tucson Pilots, they look, on paper, like a team built for the regular season instead of the postseason. Despite the impact Parra could have on this series, I think it's too much to ask of one player to carry an entire team. For the second straight year, Blues fans appear to be headed toward DS disappointment.

Tucson Pilots in 4

Saturday, January 24, 2009

NLDS Preview: Montgomery vs. Los Angeles


National League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 6th
1st - Pitching - 3rd
1st - Defense - 12th

Season Series: Montgomery Biscuits, 8-2

Preview:
This series is a rematch of the NLCS from a year ago, which the Montgomery Biscuits won 4-2. It will be interesting to see if playing a best-of-5, instead of a best-of-7, will produce different results this year. The Dodgers got pushed to 5 games by an upstart Louisville team, and may be feeling a little fatigued as a result. But this is not unfamiliar ground for them, as a year ago they upset the 2-seeded Fargo Fightin' Sioux in the NLDS after the 6-seeded Vancouver Mammoths took them to 5 in the NLPS.

This Montgomery Biscuits team appears to be even better than the one that went to the World Series a year ago. They eclipsed the Louisville Sluggers at the end of the season to become the top-ranked offense in the National League, and as you can see above, they are simply the best at all aspects of the game on the senior circuit. This Dodger team might be under-seeded, but they'll have to play flawless baseball to advance any further, especially considering the dominance by the Biscuits in the season series between the two.

Offensive Analysis: The Dodgers rode the bats of their corner outfielders to a win over the Louisville Sluggers, including a 2 home run, 6 RBI day from RF Donald Fujiwara in Game 5. LA will likely need to find a 3rd bat, though, to keep pace with the likes of 1B Chad Bieser (.308, 45, 150), RF Wilton Nixon (.273, 43, 136), and LF Flip Beck (.269, 35, 100). There aren't many holes in the Montgomery lineup, as you might expect. So even though the Dodgers' pitchers are plus-material, they could be dealing with a lot of high stress innings, which can only wear down a staff as a series goes on.

Pitching Analysis: The Biscuits have plenty of starting pitching depth. In fact, they probably have a surplus of boneified postseason-level starters, so in this short series, they won't have to worry about rotation shuffling or any other tricks. Instead they can just toss out SP Russ Nelson (13-6, 2.81) and the eldest of the Casey trio, SP Arthur Casey (12-11, 2.91) and waltz through a 5-game series. If Casey's 12-11 record doesn't impress you, maybe his 0.93 WHIP will. SP Brain Nickle (17-9, 3.28), who was tremendous in his first full years in the majors, could forseeably start or pitch long relief in this series.

Prediction: Of the 6 teams that made the National League playoffs, the Dodgers appear to be the team most suited to upsetting the Biscuits. And the Biscuits have to feel even more weary about that considering they only have 5 games to flex their muscles instead of 7. With less room for error, an early win by LA could spell danger. To crack the hard shell of this Montgomery pitching staff, the Dodgers will need a role player to step up and aid the offense. Without one, the Biscuits will turn what appears to be a tough draw into a light warmup for the bigger prize they're aiming for.

Montgomery Biscuits in 4

Friday, January 23, 2009

ALDS Preview: Hartford vs. Nashville


American League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 3rd
2nd - Pitching - 4th
15th - Defense - 5th

Season Series: Hartford Hartattacks, 6-4

Preview:
Nashville successfully earned vindication by knocking off the AL North Champions in 3 quick games. A year ago, as the same seed and against a different AL North Champion, the Cleveland Lake Mistakes, they were sent home. So playing deeper into the schedule is always more exciting, but to draw the team favored to win it all in the ALDS is a bit of a buzzkill.

The Hartford Hartattacks look like the most invincible of the playoff teams. Their offense is the best in the majors, they certainly know how to pitch, and to top it off, they're the defending World Champions. People often forget that when 1B George LaRocca came off the disabled list, RF/LF Keith Osbourne, the man they brought in to be a stop gap, remained an important piece of this lineup. So all in all, this lineup is l-o-a-d-e-d. It's tough to repeat, but Hartford should make a serious run at it.

Offensive Analysis: As Nashville's hitters were discussed previously in our ALPS Preview, we'll focus on Hartford's today. They are a home run-driven team, featuring an astounding 10 players with more than 20 long balls. Their biggest two names (and realize neither of these guys are named LaRocca or Osbourne), are 3B Dicky Williams (.305, 52, 123) and LF Anthony Winn (.293, 53, 122). The balls can fly out of Welch Park in a hurry, and every Hartattack can get a hold of one.

Pitching Analysis: SP Gerald Suzuki (17-2, 3.27) had the most impressive year for the Hartford staff, especially considering the ballpark they play in. Obviously with just 2 losses over 32 starts, he's tough to beat. Nashville will likely get a double dose of him (if the series is an extended one), which will make their lives miserable. The Hartattacks also have ample talent in the bullpen, none better than CP Albert Benitez (2-2, 2.18) and his 51 saves.

Prediction: As 5 seeds go, Nashville has a lot of life in them, and is an unreasonably tough first matchup for the top-seeded Hartattacks. However, Hartford earned the distinction of being the best overall seed by sustaining their success over the adversity of the regular season. That said, don't expect the Sounds to roll over and die in this series, and I have an inkling that it could go the distance. Despite a valiant effort, the Sounds will fail to shock the world by bouncing the defending champions prematurely, and the Hartattacks will survive to see the ALCS.

Hartford Hartattacks in 5

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

ALPS Preview: New York vs. Nashville


American League Rankings:
14th - Offense - 3rd
8th - Pitching - 4th
1st- Defense - 5th

Preview: It's a tough world when you can win 99 games and not even sniff your division title. To make things worse for the Nashville Sounds, their opponent is a division winner despite winning only 85 games. Are the Sounds a little bitter that they don't have homefield advantage for this series? If they do, they're not showing it. The Sounds are all chomping at the bit to take on a Monarchs side that doesn't have much going for it.

The weakest playoff team on paper, the Monarchs are hoping the excitement of playing in front of their home fans to open the series can help them steal some early victories. It's tough being a home underdog and losing either of the first two, as it swings home field to the other team and is a virtual death sentence. But, hey, once you're in, you've got a shot, so New York should block out the doubters and just play some ball.

Offensive Analysis: Nashville features a pair of Silver Sluggers in 3B Adam Huff (.303, 48, 149) and 2B Danny Brunette (.328, 46, 143), who is an all-world talent. The Sounds have a lot of role players as well. Seven Sounds cracked 20 home runs this year and LF Dernell Carpenter (.256, 30, 70) stole 42 bases. That number is dwarfed by Monarchs' CF Richard Feng (.238, 4, 38) who took 129 extra bags this year. Easily the biggest threat in the bigs on the basepaths, he could prove valuable to a Monarchs offense that will need a spark. Only 1B Armando Romo (.292, 32, 112) stands out otherwise.

Pitching Analysis: The Monarchs rely on SP Robert Zimmer (16-5, 3.00) to win them most of their ball games, because only one other starter has a winning record. If the Monarchs can get a lead, though, CP Darrell Ingram (0-2, 1.49) is a virtual lock to protect it. He held opposing hitters to a .155 average and converted 38 of 41 save tries. The Sounds have a tremendous fireman of their own in CP Sonny Bell (0-1, 1.29) who hauled in 55 saves on the year. Trying to get the ball in his hands will be SP Jimmie Cannon (15-9, 2.84) and any of the interchagable #2 and #3 starters that Nashville possesses.

Prediction: The Monarchs best strategy might be to get Feng on any way possible and have him attempt to steal home. And considering the unlikely odds of that working on a regular basis, this series should be the Sounds' to lose. One last issue that might flare up, however, is the fatigue of the Nashville players, a lot of whom worked overtime during the regular season trying to bring home an AL South title that wasn't meant to be.

Nashville Sounds in 3

NLPS Preview: Louisville vs. Los Angeles


National League Rankings:
2nd - Offense - 6th
11th - Pitching - 3rd
8th - Defense - 12th

Preview: The Los Angeles Dodgers had the NL West Division (and a home playoff series) in hand until the Oklahoma City Kingfishers stole it away on the season's final day. But they mustn't keep their heads down long, because a spunky Louisville Sluggers team is ready to square off with them.

Because the Sluggers won their division with a paltry 84 wins, a lot of analsysts have discredited the job of GM bdixon this year, who really overcame an inordinate amount of injuries to lead his team to a division crown. But can an 84-win team make an impact in the postseason? To do so, their talented offense will have to get the best of a Dodgers' pitching staff that is rock solid. If momentum means anything, these Dodgers will have to find some in a hurry after a late-season collapse.

Offensive Analysis: There isn't really any one player that can beat you by himself in the Slugger lineup except for LF Daryl Van Hekken (.302, 39, 130). On the other hand, there aren't very many easy outs, either. The entire lineup is versatile and pesky. Looking at their hitters it's pretty easy to miss the fact that they were 2nd in the National League in runs scored. The Dogers are anchored by their own LF Mandy Chace (.343, 40, 125), who shook off a down season a year ago and is now an NL MVP frontrunner. The other corner outfielder for the Dodgers, RF Donald Fujiwara (.290, 22, 84) is a solid hitter as well. It's immediately clear, though, that both teams were born and bred in the National League, where pitching is king.

Pitching Analysis: And when it comes to pitching, few do it better than the Los Angeles Dodgers. SP Colby Cunningham (18-7, 3.46) took the ball more than any other Dodger starter this season, but SP Andre Hubbard (12-5, 2.40) put up better numbers. The bullpen situation in LA has been a bit hectic, but they are solid at the back with CP Juan Camacho (1-0, 3.03) who converted 23 of his 27 save opportunities. The Louisville Sluggers are hoping they can survive deep into the playoffs, as SP Hamish Harvey could return from early season elbow surgery to pitch. Without him, though, the Sluggers' starting five is a bit of an adventure. SP Julian Roskos (13-9, 3.22) and SP Ron Moran (6-10, 4.65) were both imported midseason to add depth, but the Sluggers still lack an ace. Louisville also has no defined closer, so their bullpen is a roller coaster ride as well.

Prediction: Good pitching is the name of the game in the postseason, and without Harvey, the Sluggers are going to be hard-pressed to outpitch the Dodgers. To stand any chance, the Sluggers must hit for a high average with runners in scoring position and be sure to close the door if ever they get a lead. Still, LA is the superior team, and likely rolls through to the NLDS with ease.

Los Angeles Dodgers in 4

ALPS Preview: Tucson vs. Huntington


American League Rankings:
2nd - Offense - 7th
4th - Pitching - 6th
4th - Defense - 14th

Preview: The Tucson Pilots cruised into the American League West title, but hasn't played any meaningful baseball in a while. Now, after falling a game short of the 2-seed and a bye week, they'll welcome the Huntington Guyandottes to Tucson Electric Park. TEP is a nightmare for teams unprepared for the offensive slugfests it encourages, but both of these teams play in hitters' parks, and, as a result, are accustomed to doing so.

Anyone who loves watching opposing pitchers duel each other to 1-0 decisions in the cold October air will want to take a pass on this one. Expect a ton of offense from both sides. The winner of this series will be the team that can manage RISP situations the best--both on the mound and at the plate.

Offensive Analysis: The offensive numbers for Tucson are unreal. They have 2 full-time players hitting over .340. Those are DH Felipe Espinoza (.360, 51, 140) and 2B Butch Collins (.343, 49, 123). But neither of those brilliant hitters matched the RBI production of 1B Julio Tejera (.305, 64, 159), the best run-producer in all of the bigs. If Huntington can't at least contain these 3, it's going to be a short series. For their part, though, the Guyandottes counter with the HR King, 1B Ivan DeSoto (.326, 67, 142). DH Mendy Corino (.268, 53, 121) provides some pop as well, but most of the Guyandottes hitters don't hit for average like the Pilots' do.

Pitching Analysis: Tucson will need big time performances from SP Oswaldo Mendez (18-5, 2.63), who has been their workhorse all year long. The rest of Tucson's starting rotation is a little suspect, but we all know they're not trying to win any 3-2 ball games. The Tucson bullpen lacks identity, as it has been a closer by committee most of the year. Huntington, meanwhile, has a starting staff built for a 5-game series. SP Coco Casey (23-9, 2.96) has been dominant for them, but likely Game 2 starter SP Yamil Aguilar (15-4, 2.83) has been even better at times. Mix in SP Tom Klein (16-8, 3.33) and it becomes pretty easy to overlook the Guyandottes' bullpen holes. If Huntington's starters go deep in this series, an upset would not be a surprise.

Prediction: There's going to be so much offense in this series that you'll probably wonder if the players are using aluminum bats. Even though Hungtingon has a very tough 1-2 starting punch, I don't think they'll be able to handle the murderer's row of hitters that Tucson features.

Tucson Pilots in 4

NLPS Preview: Oklahoma City vs. Ottawa

National League Rankings:
9th - Offense - 3rd
2nd - Pitching - 12th
7th - Defense - 9th

Preview: A wild reshuffling of seedings on the season's final day gave us some unexpected National League Play-in Series matchups. The big winners were the Oklahoma City Kingfishers, who claimed the National League West title with an extra-innings win over the Arizona Flip-Floppers while the Los Angeles Dodgers fell to the Vancouver Renegades. Meanwhile the Ottawa Filibusters took their finale over the Fargo Fightin' Sioux to keep the Renegades at home in October.

But now that the grind of the regular season is behind us, the details of the game are subject to going under the microscope in the postseason. So when examining each of these two teams, one thing is immediately clear: they are polar opposites. The Filibusters get offensive production from their entire lineup, while the Kingfishers rely on an arsenal of arms to win their games. Something has to give in this NLPS, though.

Offensive Analysis: The Filibusters had 5 guys drive in 90 runs this year, led by 1B Brian Taylor's (.311, 35, 123) terrific campaign. LF Braeden Duchscherer (.309, 30, 92) is also an intimdating hitter while part-time C Curt Williams (.361, 23, 90) had eye-popping numbers in just 432 at-bats. For the Kingfishers, the meat of their order does most of the work. Young star 3B Magglio De La Vega (.312, 29, 124) protects a couple of other big bats in LF Sal Knight (.294, 39, 112) and 1B Charlie Freeman (.287, 56, 133). With the Kingfishers having home-field advantage, though, 3 of the games will be played in AT&T Bricktown Ballpark, a pitcher's paradise. The Filibusters will have to be able to manufacture runs in the road games.

Pitching Analysis: The Kingfishers have the edge in this category, but the gap isn't as wide as you might think. For OKC, SP Peter James (14-9, 2.85) is their go-to man, but their bigger strength is a talented and deep bullpen. But, despite the plethora of live arms just a phone call away for the Kingfishers, they also blew 19 team saves this year, a stat worth keeping an eye on in the postseason. The Filibusters are likely to have SP Malik Dunston (16-7, 3.65) toe the rubber in Game 1. All of Ottawa's starters are good but not great, while the bullpen only has a few standout names as well. CP Zoltan Schultz (6-7, 5.74) did convert 37 of 41 save opportunities this year, but his ERA was nightmarish for a 9th inning man.

Prediction: Oklahoma City must take care of business at home in this series where the Ottawa hitters will be choked off from the long ball. Neither team jumps off the page as the obvious pick, but I think the bullpens are going to play a huge role in this set, and the nod goes to the Kingfishers if they do.

Oklahoma City Kingfishers in 5

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The battle of Tennessee.

What a nice rivalry between the Memphis Blues and the Nashville Sounds for the second season in Double Mendoza. Last season Memphis won the division title by 20 games but this season, Nashville had a very strong start to lead during almost all the season.
Unfortunately for the Sounds, the Blues came back very strong winning 15 of their last 20 games to take the lead. With 4 games to play in the season, Memphis has a 4 games lead.
For Memphis, Rico Parra, who's leading his team with 20 wins, won the pitcher of the week award during that final stretch. Pablo Suarez, who's in the running for ROY award, Jerry Piazza, Bryan Guerrero and Rafael Montanez lead the offense.
For Nashville, the dynamic duo of Danny Brunette and Adam Huff are among leaders for HRs and RBI's, but the lost of Benji Reyes for the final month of the season ruined their chances for the title. On the mound, Sonny Bell did a fantastic job, saving 53 games in 56 attemps while the newcomer John Burroughs was 5-1 in his last 7 starts but it was not enough for the Sounds.
If those 2 teams met during the playoffs, it will be very interesting to see who's the champion of Tennessee.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Instant Classic: Vancouver Outlasts Ottawa

The closest playoff races remaining are in the National League, including the all-Canadian battle for the final Wild Card spot between Ottawa and Vancouver, who are in the midst of a 4-game series. After splitting the first two games, Vancouver won a war of attrition in 17 innings. This instant classic had it all, and the Renegades never held a lead until C Carl Ramirez hit a bases loaded single that plated P Ralph Cornelius and LF Mike Freeman due to a poor relay throw from the Filibusters' 2B Vic Larson.

The Renegades rallied to tie (or win the game) during 3 must-rally occassions. Once in the 9th on a 2-out single from SS Russell Gibbs, once in the 15th on a leadoff home run from 1B Jason Arnold, and finally once more on Ramirez's walk-off. Forty-four players entered the game, 16 of which were pitchers. The game featured 42 hits, and the Renegades produced 7 extra base hits. Vancouver RF Esteban Segui collected 5 hits in 8 at-bats, while Ramirez reached base 7 times in 10 plate appearances.

The win keeps the Renegades very much alive, but it came at a cost. GM Rodneyhuff reports he has only two available bullpen arms for the next game, and his next-day starter, Cornelius, threw the final 4 innings of this one. But don't fault the Renegades if they wind up falling short of the second season. They proved they have a world of fight in them during this 10-9 slugfest. It may not be much consolation if it does not propel them to the playoffs, but it is a game these players can hang their hats on for the rest of their careers.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Predicting Playoff Seeds

With only 27 games remaining in what has been an exciting regular season, the playoff picture has some of its pieces coming into focus. The Montgomery Biscuits, for example, are already on the precipice of locking up the NL South and possibly the #1 seed yet again. But not every race features such clarity. The AL South has a couple of heavyweights vying for the division crown, the Nashville Sounds and the Memphis Blues. Each has upwards of 80 wins on the year already, but neither has been able to pull away from the other. With all of that in mind, here are some predictions for the playoff brackets this year.

American League
#1: Hartford Hartattacks (Currently: 89-46)
- They're healthy now that LaRocca is back and poised to defend their championship of a year ago. They already gunned down a team that once looked uncatchable in Nashville and don't figure to let off the gas any time soon.

#2: Memphis Blues (Currently: 84-51)
- Call it a hunch, but after a disappointing playoff exit last year, I think the Blues still have some bite in them. And even though that Nashville offense is fearsome, I think both teams are running out of steam a bit, which tilts the scales back toward the more defensive-oriented Blues.

#3 Tucson Pilots (Currently: 81-54)
- A very solid team with a litany of hitters and a hitter's park to boot. They're a virtual lock for this slot in the bracket, but they're going to have to shake off their playoff flop of a year ago from the same line. Right now the Huntington Guyandottes seem their likeliest opponent, and though Tucson fans might not want to hear it, the Huntington pitchers look better to me in a 5-game set.

#4 New York Monarchs (Currently: 71-64)
- Bravo to the Monarchs for being well on their way to a first ever AL North title after Cleveland's collapse left this division up for grabs. I expect them to fend off a very game Chicago Gangsta' Chimps club that has too many holes in the rotation to erase a 6-game lead this late in the year.

#5 Nashville Sounds (Currently: 87-48)
- Whichever team lands here, Memphis or Nashville, is going to have to be very worried about fatigue in the playoffs. Due to the intense battle for the divisional crown, a lot of players on both squads have carried heavy workloads this season. And whichever is forced to play a play-in series will be at a serious disadvantage compared with the other.

#6 Huntington Guyandottes (Currently: 77-58)
- After finally running away from New Orleans for good it seems, these Guyandottes are an interesting upset special team to be aware of. We know they'll play good defense during the playoff pressure cooker moments, and they can pitch pretty well for a 6-seed. Keep an eye on these guys.

National League
#1 Montgomery Biscuits (Currently: 87-48)
- Clearly the National League's best team and pitching staff, the Biscuits would have to collapse in a hurry to fall out of this line. Someone in the NL is going to have to find a way to score on these guys, or Montgomery fans can rest easy knowing that this 1-seed should translate to a 2nd straight World Series appearance.

#2 Fargo Fightin' Sioux (Currently: 79-56)
- At one point it wasn't clear whether the Fightin' Sioux would be able to defend their AL North crown, but now with the Los Angeles Dodgers in a freefall it appears they will even get a first-round bye, giving us an identical set of Top 3 seeds in the NL from a year ago. They'll rely on just 3 starters once they make the postseason, but a team who can stretch a 7-game series against them will have the upperhand.

#3 Los Angeles Dodgers (Currently: 79-56)
- A very good NL West is quickly getting bigger in the Dodgers' rearview mirror, but LA's pitching is too strong to let them fall any further than the 3-seed. Other than a 4-game set against Montgomery, no non-divisional matchups really seem much of a threat for this squad.

#4 Louisville Sluggers (Currently: 69-66)
- While still not as healthy as they'd like to be at this point, the Sluggers finally seem to have seized the reigns of the AL East after a drawn out battle with the Kansas City Masterpiece. They are actually the NL's highest-scoring offense, so with the right playoff matchups they could be a dangerous team despite their record.

#5 Oklahoma City Kingfishers (Currently: 76-59)
- The NL Wild Cards are the fuzziest berths left, and could really fall any number of ways. Of the 4 primary contenders, however, the Kingfishers seem the most balanced on offense and defense, and have routinely won series against some of the NL's best.

#6 Vancouver Renegades (Currently: 75-60)
- The 6-seed may actually be preferable in the NL this season because Louisville could spring up and bite any team while the Dodgers will have to snap out of a funk by playoff time to survive their first series. Ottawa is a great story and is playing great baseball right now but still has series left against Oklahoma City and Vancouver, and a losing record over those 8 games would likely doom their odds of sneaking in. Vancouver swept Ottawa in a 3-game series recently, making the Renegades look like the better choice.