ALDS Preview: Memphis vs. Tucson

American League Rankings:

6th - Offense - 2nd
1st - Pitching - 4th
12th - Defense - 4th

Season Series: Tucson Pilots, 7-3

Preview: Both of these teams suffered early exits a year ago, but this year one of them will claim passage to the ALCS. The Tucson Pilots got pushed to the brink by a formidable Huntington Guyandottes team in the ALPS, so how much do they really have left in the tank? I suspect plenty. In fact, now that an interesting Huntington squad is out of the picture, Tucson may be the likeliest team remaining who could potentially beat Hartford.

So how can Memphis tame this beast in a series they are "supposed" to win? The burden lies squarely on the shoulders of their pitching staff, and one man in particular will need to be the Blues' trump card. SP Rico Parra is the best arm available to either team, and is going to have to play the role of difference maker to push Memphis into the ALCS.

Offensive Analysis: The Pilots scored 41 runs in 5 games against the Guyandottes, which made them the top offense during the PS'. We expected them to light up the scoreboard, and that shouldn't change in this round. So, the Blues, who had 5 players drive in more than 90 runs in the regular season, will need contributions up and down their lineup. Anchoring it for them will be 2B Pablo Suarez (.286, 31, 120) and CF Rafael Montanez (.302, 36, 98). They also have a very nice spark plug in LF Bryan Guerrero (.339, 5, 56) whose .424 OBP and 66 stolen bases make him a nice top of the order weapon.

Pitching Analysis: As mentioned earlier, the Blues need SP Rico Parra (21-6, 2.63) to pitch as advertised in this series in order to move on. If they can't rely on him in his starts, it becomes really hard to plan out a way for Memphis to get the necessary 3 wins. If Tucson's offense keeps clicking and they get deep into the Memphis bullpen, only RP Julio Mercado (10-1, 2.62) appears to be much of a threat to keep the big hitters down.

Prediction: Memphis was very impressive this year in gunning down a Nashville team for the AL South, after the Sounds led for the majority of the season. And though they managed to wrestle away the 2-seed from both Nashville and these Tucson Pilots, they look, on paper, like a team built for the regular season instead of the postseason. Despite the impact Parra could have on this series, I think it's too much to ask of one player to carry an entire team. For the second straight year, Blues fans appear to be headed toward DS disappointment.

Tucson Pilots in 4