Sunday, January 25, 2009

ALCS Preview: Hartford vs. Tucson



American League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 2nd
2nd - Pitching - 4th
15th - Defense - 4th

Season Series: Tied, 5-5

Preview: On the precipice of returning to the promised land one year after they won it all, the Hartford Hartattacks will face a very different opponent this time around in the ALCS. This time, to earn top honors on the junior circuit, the Hartattacks will have to eliminate a team after their own heart. For the second straight year, Hartford and Tucson finished 1 and 2 in American League offense. Both teams play in hitters' parks and are like two powderkegs waiting to go off.

At the risk of inserting my opinion into the column, I love this time of year when the series become best-of-7. There's more strategy involved, especially when it comes to starting rotations and bullpen workload. As the teams dig deeper into their rotation, we could easily see the likes of Hartford SP Wayne Egan (17-6, 4.31) or Tucson SP Rob Spencer (18-6, 4.33). Especially since these pitchers tend to have to throw late in the series, it's not inconceivable that one of them could play a big role in determining the outcome.

What We Know: Tucson DH Felipe Espinoza would do it all for the Pilots if he had to. In the postseason he is hitting for a .433 avg with 6 HRs and 17 RBIs. The supporting cast is doing a good job as well, but Tucson's offensive output dipped a bit in the ALDS as compared to the ALPS. Considering they overcame a double dose of Memphis SP Rico Parra, though, that may not be their primary concern. For Hartford, their bullpen was outstanding against Nashville, but it didn't matter after Game 1. The offense exploded to score 6, 21, and 8 runs in their 3 wins, meaning a tight bullpen wasn't as important. SP/RP Hideo Abe had a save, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. If he steps out of the 'pen in this series, the Pilots hitters might smell blood.

What We Don't Know: We don't know who Tucson's ace is. Sure, SP Oswaldo Mendez will start Game 1, but he has given up 11 runs in 4 starts. If expected to nail down a Game 5-7 win, we don't know if he can do it. We also don't know where Hartford's run production will come from--but that's a good thing. After playing just 4 games this postseason, 8 different hitters have driven in at least 3 runs. 3B Dicky Williams and SS Carmen Jackson lead the way with 6 apiece.

Prediction: Offense reigns in the American League, and exhibits A and B stand before you as ALCS opponents. Tucson may have been bounced from the playoffs early a year ago, but those are distant memories now. With 4 more victories, they can step onto baseball's grandest stage. But, standing in their way is the only team who has never lost in the postseason. Believe it or not, this series comes down to pitching over offense, as they so often do. SP Gerald Suzuki and SP Terrence Walters, who could combine for as many as 4 starts in this series, will be key in this series. If they, and Hartford's bullpen, pitch up to their billing, then this season's AL Champion will feel pretty familiar.

Hartford Hartattacks in 6

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