Tuesday, January 27, 2009

NLCS Preview: Montgomery vs. Fargo


National League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 4th
1st - Pitching - 7th
1st - Defense - 2nd

Season Series: Montgomery Biscuits, 8-2

Preview: While the casual fan might be pulling for the "upset" pick here, in order to avoid a repeat World Series, true baseball fans are likely pulling for Montgomery to take care of business in this NLCS.  If Hartford and Montgomery reunite, the two best teams will once again be meeting in the Fall Classic.  Montgomery won the first 8 (!) meetings against Fargo this season before finally dropping 2.

But, don't tell anyone from small market Fargo, North Dakota that.  The city is in a fever pitch after the Fightin' Sioux earned some redemption this season by surging past the inexperienced Kingfishers in the NLDS, a step they were unable to take a year ago.  So, this season, will the National League's final chapter have a different ending?  Or will Goliath squash yet another David en route to a rendezvous with Hartford?

What We Know: Fargo won't be relying on the long ball to move on.  In their NLDS against Oklahoma City, they hit only 2 home runs in 4 games.  Their best run producer was 2B Allen Morton with 7 RBI.  We also know how Montgomery's 4th starter will fare if he has to pitch.  SP Rey Fleming lost Game 4 against the Dodgers and only lasted 4.2 innings.  But their other 3 starters were good as gold, and no one ever lost an NLCS with 3 tough starters.

What We Don't Know: We don't know who Montgomery can rely on in the clutch.  1B Chad Bieser has been the best performer in the playoffs, but none of the regular starters hit consistently.  If ever they find themselves down 3-2 in the 9th, who is going to step up and start a rally?  We also don't know if Montgomery getting pushed to 5 games against Los Angeles will effect the first few games.  If fatigue is an issue, and Fargo is gifted an early game, the Fightin' Sioux Game 2 and 3 starters, SP Billy Tracy and SP Jack Torres, might have what it takes to extend that lead.

Prediction: Los Angeles was a tough team, but Montgomery's shaky performance in the NLDS makes them more of a question mark in this series than they should be.  Still, while Fargo might have the pitching to push this series into its later games, I don't think they have the offense to get the job done.  This will be your typical NL slugfest, with low scores and bullpens being put under the microscope.  Expect a number of 1-run games, but also expect the "Back-to-Back NLCS Champs" t-shirts to be printed for Montgomery.

Montgomery Biscuits in 5

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