Saturday, January 24, 2009

NLDS Preview: Montgomery vs. Los Angeles


National League Rankings:
1st - Offense - 6th
1st - Pitching - 3rd
1st - Defense - 12th

Season Series: Montgomery Biscuits, 8-2

Preview:
This series is a rematch of the NLCS from a year ago, which the Montgomery Biscuits won 4-2. It will be interesting to see if playing a best-of-5, instead of a best-of-7, will produce different results this year. The Dodgers got pushed to 5 games by an upstart Louisville team, and may be feeling a little fatigued as a result. But this is not unfamiliar ground for them, as a year ago they upset the 2-seeded Fargo Fightin' Sioux in the NLDS after the 6-seeded Vancouver Mammoths took them to 5 in the NLPS.

This Montgomery Biscuits team appears to be even better than the one that went to the World Series a year ago. They eclipsed the Louisville Sluggers at the end of the season to become the top-ranked offense in the National League, and as you can see above, they are simply the best at all aspects of the game on the senior circuit. This Dodger team might be under-seeded, but they'll have to play flawless baseball to advance any further, especially considering the dominance by the Biscuits in the season series between the two.

Offensive Analysis: The Dodgers rode the bats of their corner outfielders to a win over the Louisville Sluggers, including a 2 home run, 6 RBI day from RF Donald Fujiwara in Game 5. LA will likely need to find a 3rd bat, though, to keep pace with the likes of 1B Chad Bieser (.308, 45, 150), RF Wilton Nixon (.273, 43, 136), and LF Flip Beck (.269, 35, 100). There aren't many holes in the Montgomery lineup, as you might expect. So even though the Dodgers' pitchers are plus-material, they could be dealing with a lot of high stress innings, which can only wear down a staff as a series goes on.

Pitching Analysis: The Biscuits have plenty of starting pitching depth. In fact, they probably have a surplus of boneified postseason-level starters, so in this short series, they won't have to worry about rotation shuffling or any other tricks. Instead they can just toss out SP Russ Nelson (13-6, 2.81) and the eldest of the Casey trio, SP Arthur Casey (12-11, 2.91) and waltz through a 5-game series. If Casey's 12-11 record doesn't impress you, maybe his 0.93 WHIP will. SP Brain Nickle (17-9, 3.28), who was tremendous in his first full years in the majors, could forseeably start or pitch long relief in this series.

Prediction: Of the 6 teams that made the National League playoffs, the Dodgers appear to be the team most suited to upsetting the Biscuits. And the Biscuits have to feel even more weary about that considering they only have 5 games to flex their muscles instead of 7. With less room for error, an early win by LA could spell danger. To crack the hard shell of this Montgomery pitching staff, the Dodgers will need a role player to step up and aid the offense. Without one, the Biscuits will turn what appears to be a tough draw into a light warmup for the bigger prize they're aiming for.

Montgomery Biscuits in 4

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