Monday, January 12, 2009

Predicting Playoff Seeds

With only 27 games remaining in what has been an exciting regular season, the playoff picture has some of its pieces coming into focus. The Montgomery Biscuits, for example, are already on the precipice of locking up the NL South and possibly the #1 seed yet again. But not every race features such clarity. The AL South has a couple of heavyweights vying for the division crown, the Nashville Sounds and the Memphis Blues. Each has upwards of 80 wins on the year already, but neither has been able to pull away from the other. With all of that in mind, here are some predictions for the playoff brackets this year.

American League
#1: Hartford Hartattacks (Currently: 89-46)
- They're healthy now that LaRocca is back and poised to defend their championship of a year ago. They already gunned down a team that once looked uncatchable in Nashville and don't figure to let off the gas any time soon.

#2: Memphis Blues (Currently: 84-51)
- Call it a hunch, but after a disappointing playoff exit last year, I think the Blues still have some bite in them. And even though that Nashville offense is fearsome, I think both teams are running out of steam a bit, which tilts the scales back toward the more defensive-oriented Blues.

#3 Tucson Pilots (Currently: 81-54)
- A very solid team with a litany of hitters and a hitter's park to boot. They're a virtual lock for this slot in the bracket, but they're going to have to shake off their playoff flop of a year ago from the same line. Right now the Huntington Guyandottes seem their likeliest opponent, and though Tucson fans might not want to hear it, the Huntington pitchers look better to me in a 5-game set.

#4 New York Monarchs (Currently: 71-64)
- Bravo to the Monarchs for being well on their way to a first ever AL North title after Cleveland's collapse left this division up for grabs. I expect them to fend off a very game Chicago Gangsta' Chimps club that has too many holes in the rotation to erase a 6-game lead this late in the year.

#5 Nashville Sounds (Currently: 87-48)
- Whichever team lands here, Memphis or Nashville, is going to have to be very worried about fatigue in the playoffs. Due to the intense battle for the divisional crown, a lot of players on both squads have carried heavy workloads this season. And whichever is forced to play a play-in series will be at a serious disadvantage compared with the other.

#6 Huntington Guyandottes (Currently: 77-58)
- After finally running away from New Orleans for good it seems, these Guyandottes are an interesting upset special team to be aware of. We know they'll play good defense during the playoff pressure cooker moments, and they can pitch pretty well for a 6-seed. Keep an eye on these guys.

National League
#1 Montgomery Biscuits (Currently: 87-48)
- Clearly the National League's best team and pitching staff, the Biscuits would have to collapse in a hurry to fall out of this line. Someone in the NL is going to have to find a way to score on these guys, or Montgomery fans can rest easy knowing that this 1-seed should translate to a 2nd straight World Series appearance.

#2 Fargo Fightin' Sioux (Currently: 79-56)
- At one point it wasn't clear whether the Fightin' Sioux would be able to defend their AL North crown, but now with the Los Angeles Dodgers in a freefall it appears they will even get a first-round bye, giving us an identical set of Top 3 seeds in the NL from a year ago. They'll rely on just 3 starters once they make the postseason, but a team who can stretch a 7-game series against them will have the upperhand.

#3 Los Angeles Dodgers (Currently: 79-56)
- A very good NL West is quickly getting bigger in the Dodgers' rearview mirror, but LA's pitching is too strong to let them fall any further than the 3-seed. Other than a 4-game set against Montgomery, no non-divisional matchups really seem much of a threat for this squad.

#4 Louisville Sluggers (Currently: 69-66)
- While still not as healthy as they'd like to be at this point, the Sluggers finally seem to have seized the reigns of the AL East after a drawn out battle with the Kansas City Masterpiece. They are actually the NL's highest-scoring offense, so with the right playoff matchups they could be a dangerous team despite their record.

#5 Oklahoma City Kingfishers (Currently: 76-59)
- The NL Wild Cards are the fuzziest berths left, and could really fall any number of ways. Of the 4 primary contenders, however, the Kingfishers seem the most balanced on offense and defense, and have routinely won series against some of the NL's best.

#6 Vancouver Renegades (Currently: 75-60)
- The 6-seed may actually be preferable in the NL this season because Louisville could spring up and bite any team while the Dodgers will have to snap out of a funk by playoff time to survive their first series. Ottawa is a great story and is playing great baseball right now but still has series left against Oklahoma City and Vancouver, and a losing record over those 8 games would likely doom their odds of sneaking in. Vancouver swept Ottawa in a 3-game series recently, making the Renegades look like the better choice.

No comments: