Thursday, June 17, 2010

Breaking Down The Ottawa-Florida Blockbuster

Ottawa and Florida have just pulled off the biggest trade in recent Double Mendoza memory. Here's how it breaks down:

Ottawa gets:
OF Randy Christman - might be a bit overpaid, but you won't find a more reliable on-base threat
SS Clem Powell - 7th pick of the Season 3 draft could be his way to the first of many Gold Gloves
SP Kevin Kida - Season 7 IFA projects to a solid #2 with very good control and splits, better-than-average velocity and sinking action. His #1 pitch (sinker) will undoubtedly be ML quality; the only question mark on this guy is how well his #2-#4 pitches develop.

Florida gets:
3B Pablo Johnson - the prize of the Season 5 IFA class ($18.6MM bonus), he makes excellent contact, has plus power, and could draw 85+ walks a year. He can already be an average-to-good defender at 3B, and still has some developing to do. There are a bunch of All-Star Games and numerous other awards in the future for this kid.
SS Michael Swann - The Pends are getting back an adequate SS here. His glove is a little less than you want at SS, and his range doesn't quite make up for it. He has a very strong throwing arm and good accuracy. Thanks to his proficiency against lefties, he's a better hitter than your average SS.
SP Stew Roundtree - Season 7 1st-rounder (#30) has a long way to go, but if his pitches all develop, he could overcome shaky splits and be a ML contributor.

Analysis
Looks to me like Florida got the absolute max possible for Johnson - a very nice SP prospect, arguably the best defensive SS in Double Mendoza (young, to boot), plus a nice ML OF. Not that Johnson isn't worth it. He has it all...he'll be a .300+ hitter with power and a great walk totals, he'll be a plus defender at 3B, and he'll steal bases if needed. The only flaw is a low DUR rating (67), but given the rest of the package that's pretty easily overlooked. Swan and Roundtree are the 5th and 6th-best pieces in the trade. Who has improved their team more? Assuming they promote Johnson immediately, Florida. Long-term (when Kida reaches the bigs), I think Ottawa gets a little edge, but I can easily see this being a great trade for both teams.

No comments: